How will El Niño affect the weather in Japan?
El Niño usually gives Japan a warmer winter. That can mean more rain in December, lower base depths, more melt and more sunshine. Lower resorts, and those further south, are the most affected.
Storms can come less often but be stronger, with more snowfall and bigger gaps between them. Instead of five storm systems in a month, you might only get two, with double the snowfall.
The shoulder months carry the most risk. December, and late February into March, are the times most likely to suffer, and they have already been risky in recent seasons.
History is not a good guide, especially for a super El Niño. The last one ran from summer 2014 to spring 2016, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, and peaked in December 2015. The winter of 2015-16 was warm across Japan, with less snow than usual on almost all of the Sea of Japan side, but that was more than ten years ago, when global heating was less of a factor. We really don't know what a super El Niño will do now. The Japan Meteorological Agency reports that the El Niño running since spring 2026 is the strongest on record: in September 2026 the sea in its El Niño monitoring area was 4.0°C warmer than normal, past the previous record of 3.6°C in December 1997.
To keep the risk down, aim for late January. It is usually the safest time for snow depth and snowfall. Too early in January, and there may not be enough base yet.
Stay at or near a high resort. On Honshu, the ski areas with the highest bases include Mount Norikura (about 1,500m), Shiga Kogen (from about 1,330m, and 1,473m at Okushiga Kogen), Sugadaira Kogen (about 1,250m) and Fujimi Panorama (1,050m). North-facing slopes matter too, as they are out of the strongest sun.
The popular Nagano resorts are high risk. They are further south, and many have low base villages.
Hokkaido is much safer, as it is further north and colder in general.
If you must go further south, book with free cancellation and book a Hokkaido backup plan. If you must travel in the shoulder season, this is even more important.
Nothing is certain, and January in Hokkaido will likely be normal. Some places, such as Furano, may even get more snow from the changing weather systems. Again, we don't know, but it is possible.
Because of this, Hokkaido gets very busy in an El Niño winter. Expect everyone else to be making the same plans as you.
Checked 20 October 2026.
